The Osbon Capital Blog

Cyberfraud: It’s not just Nigerian lotteries

It might be easier to take cyberfraud seriously if the emails were not so pitifully absurd and full of grammar gaffes. You know the ones, promising fantastic windfalls (“you are the sole hair”), ridiculous sums (“…of $650 million USAmerica dollars”) and laughable requests (“if please you just must send us your…”).

Nobody (well almost nobody) would fall for those scams. But they are just the tip of a giant, despicable, and surprisingly sophisticated iceberg.

What’s really going on?

The real threat today is the growth of wire fraud – the compromise of identity and login credentials to move money out of an account into criminal hands.

The fantastic emails (inheritance, confirm package delivery, bank credential update, IRS inquiry, and so on) are in many cases simply covers to get an unwitting victim to reveal a tiny piece of information (like an email, first name, last name, login ID, etc.) or open a door for malicious software (“click here”) that can compromise your information.

Like all of you, I don’t knowingly respond in any way to any of these email ploys, although some of them look very realistic.

But email is not the only tool for fraud. I recently started getting random calls to my home and my office from very pleasant sounding people, posh English accent in one case, asking such simple, innocuous questions (“Is your first name John?”) and apologizing for bothering me as they tried to verify my last name, my address, my phone number, anything.  Are these people idiots, I thought?  No, it was cyberfraud in practice, and it’s organized, persistent and relentless.

Once enough pieces of the puzzle have been acquired, the fraudsters can request bogus wire transfers, take over control of your accounts, and basically turn your life into a nightmare.

Once gone, the money is virtually impossible to recover

Meet Tobey, or better yet, don’t…

Cyberfraud may seem primitive and naïve, until you understand that there are literally global phone and email banks of people at work. Like Tobey’s organization.

Tobechi Onwuhara, aka Tobey, an accused master scammer long wanted by the FBI, is a prime example of a successful scam artist. Educated, well-spoken, with no accent, Tobey and his organization will takes months to collect enough information on a single person to execute online wire transfers.  Alleged to have defrauded the financial industry of tens of millions of dollars, Tobey has just been arrested overseas and extradited.

What Fidelity is doing

I refreshed my cyberfraud knowledge by recently attending an online presentation by Fidelity (primary custodian for Osbon Capital clients) on “The Evolving Cyber Fraud Threat.” I must say I was pretty surprised by what I learned, but also reassured that there is a lot of help available.

Fidelity would be an obvious target for criminals, and has invested proactively in building formidable defenses to protect accountholder funds. So, not to worry, just be aware.

I like Fidelity for many reasons, but chief among many is its redundant rules-based systems for money movement.  Unless instructions are absolutely PERFECT and within the rules, money will not move in Fidelity. It’s almost comical, but I have had to resubmit wire requests for missing punctuation.  What may seem like an annoying, small-minded obsession with detail is actually Fidelity’s protection system at work.

Furthermore, as a boutique advisor, I know all of my clients and their financial habits.  So if something out of the ordinary happens (“send $25,000 to London this weekend”) my radar activates immediately.

Don’t worry, don’t respond, just stop…

There is no reason for undue worry about being a victim of cyberfraud. Substantial protection is built in to Fidelity and Osbon Capital systems on your behalf.

However we are all responsible to be alert, aware, inquisitive and cautious. If you ever have any question or doubt about any combination of online, phone and financial activity, it’s worth just stopping, not acting, thinking, waiting, and asking questions. Erring on the side of caution can only help to thwart the next Tobey.

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Although Adviser has a reasonable belief in Fidelity’s ability to safeguard client assets and identify suspicious transactions, Adviser has not independently verified all aspects of Fidelity’s anti-fraud program or associated internal controls.

Max Osbon Joins Osbon Capital Management

With enthusiasm and pride I am announcing that Max Osbon is joining Osbon Capital Management, effective immediately.  Actually, Max has been active in projects for our company since he was a 19 year-old math and finance double major at Santa Clara University.  That’s when his work first got my attention – it was very fast and very right.

Now he’s 25, a former Bloomberg salesman covering Goldman Sachs, and writer and world traveler

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Categories: Special Additions

It’s always something, but rarely everything

Gold’s down this year, fairly dramatically so.  This has some investors proclaiming the shiny stuff’s irreversible demise, or maybe wondering why they ever bought into it in the first place.

My view is less dramatic: there’s always something that’s down, but rarely are all asset classes down at the same time. Right now stocks are strong and gold is weak.  But the reverse has often been true, and will likely be true again.

Let’s take a short trip down memory lane and put things in perspective.

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Categories: ETFs, Indexing/Passive Investing, Investment Strategy

The history of modern investing on a single sheet

If you invested one dollar in small stocks in 1926 and then took an 87 year nap, you’d be waking up today with $18,000+.  That’s the power of compounding – one of the many interesting concepts portrayed in the annual Andex chart produced by Morningstar.

With its exceptional representation of long-term market trends, I consider the Andex chart one of my most important reference tools.  In fact, I keep an oversized version pinned to the wall right behind my desk, so I can easily consult it. And I frequently do.

Have your very own

I’d be pleased to send you your own Andex chart if you like. Just send me an email with your postal mailing address and I’ll put it in the mail to you right away.

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Categories: Indexing/Passive Investing, Investment Strategy

Four flavors of risk

We’ve been discussing risk often on this blog this year, trying to come at it from a number of different angles. It’s one of those core topics in investing that deserves all the attention it gets.

No doubt about it, risk is a big word in investing.  Too big, in my view, to have much meaning unless one looks deeper and gets more specific.

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Categories: Risk

NCAA brackets and the challenge of forecasting

The NCAA basketball pool is a blast every year. Your cleverly selected bracket plays out as a month-long clash between delight and despair as some of your teams heroically advance and others are squished like bugs.  It’s college sports at its best.

Predicting winners and losers is a great way to entertain yourself every March, but it’s no way to invest.

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Categories: ETFs, Investment Strategy

Passive power

People often refer to index-based investing as “passive” investing. Some view that label as a negative – as if that investment style is somehow weak, unsophisticated, or the refuge of the lazy.  I disagree completely.  And I’ll tell you why.

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Categories: ETFs, Taxes and fees

Getting ahead by not falling behind

By Max Osbon

Over time unforeseen risks can and will accumulate in a portfolio. Interest rate risks, market risks, inflation risks, default risks, and the risk of improper diversification are examples of potential pitfalls that must be persistently monitored.

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Categories: International

Play to win

Wouldn’t it be nice to be fairly sure you were going to win every time you went out on the tennis court or hockey rink? Based on recently released performance stats, I guess Vanguard must know that feeling. Its funds had a good year in 2012, which has been the pattern for quite some time now.

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Categories: ETFs, Indexing/Passive Investing

Sponsor Team Osbon

In about four months my son Max and I will proudly take the field at Columbia University’s Wien Stadium for The RBC Decathlon where we’ll give it our all for the benefit of Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer Center.

We’re excited for the event and ramping up our training. But we need your help. Since you won’t be able to help us complete the bench press, agility course or 40 yard dash, we’d like to request your financial support. Will you sponsor us?

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Categories: International

The risk of being human

Last week we discussed different aspects of risk and how to measure it. I’d like to follow up with a short note about a primary source of risk. I’m sorry to say it’s looking you in the mirror.

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Categories: Investment Advisors, Risk

A Fresh Look at Risk

Investing is risky. That’s no secret. But I find that many investors get fixated on the elements of risk that matter least and ignore the risks that matter most. When I meet with new clients I try to focus the discussion on the real and personal side of risk, not on textbook definitions.

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Categories: Asset Allocation, Risk

Set it and forget it?

Finally, investing is fun again. The stock market is up more than 100 percent over the last four years. Bonds continue their 30-year record of positive returns. Gold’s been on a long winning streak and real estate is back on the rise. As the good times just keep rolling along, is it time to “set it and forget it” with your portfolio’s asset allocation?

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Categories: Asset Allocation

Small changes, big impact

Does one percent matter?  If you’re watching the balance in your portfolio for one year, the difference between an eight percent return and a seven percent return can be a fair amount of money, but won’t really change your life. But maintain that difference for a generation and the impact will really get your attention.

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Why do allocations change?

Good question, and one asked recently by a potential client.  When should asset allocations change in a portfolio?  The when, why and how of allocation changes should be as transparent as indexing itself, and it is.

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Categories: Asset Allocation

Year 5: Buffett leads in wager against hedge funds

Five years ago Warren Buffett made a big bet, not to enrich himself, but to prove a point. He wagered that an unmanaged S&P 500 index fund would outperform hedge funds handpicked by the Wall Street firm Protége Partners. We’re now at the halfway point in the 10-year bet and Buffett is in the lead.

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Categories: Indexing/Passive Investing

Team Osbon prepares for The RBC Decathlon

Family, philanthropy, and fitness are all great passions for me.  So when registration opened for a fantastic event that combines all three, I was at the front of the sign-up line.  On July 28 this summer, my son Max and I will throw ourselves into The RBC Decathlon, where we’ll compete in ten athletic events while raising money for the Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer Center.

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Categories: Philanthropy

2012: Despite the headlines, a strong year

Fiscal cliff, high unemployment, euro crisis, stalled economy, divisive election, Congressional gridlock, US debt downgrade, nuclear threat. If you watched the news in 2012, you’d be convinced it was a dismal year for the markets.

But it wasn’t. Quite the contrary.  The investment performance numbers are in for 2012, and they tell a far better story than you might think.

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Categories: Asset Allocation, ETFs, Indexing/Passive Investing

Fidelity joins index club?

What’s this? Fidelity, one the largest active investment management companies has index investments?  It sure does. Fidelity’s Spartan 500 Index fund, with $48 billion in assets under management, is the flagship in the Spartan family of 14 index mutual funds. What’s going on? Is Fidelity going passive?

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Categories: ETFs, Indexing/Passive Investing

Lifetime employment

Some people want to work forever. I’m one of them. In investment management, a field where jumping from firm to firm in search of higher compensation is the accepted norm, lifetime employment is the rare exception. With all my job changes behind me, I intend to spend the rest of my career working hard at Osbon Capital. I think that’s a big plus for our clients. Here’s why.

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Categories: Investment Advisors

What’s on your mind?

Some of the best Osbon Capital articles started as questions posed by clients.  Questions like: Should I sell all my dividend stocks before we go over the cliff? (Dividend Cliff Jumping) And how can my college-age son learn how to invest? (The Road to $5 Million). As we head into the final week of 2012 there’s lot to think about, to be thankful for, and to enjoy. 

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Categories: Financial Planning
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  • Welcome to the Osbon blog



    Each of my 25+ years in the investment industry has reinforced one key idea — it's impossible to predict the future, but essential to prepare for it.

    This blog discusses developments in the economy, politics, and the markets, all from the perspective of what matters most to individual investors. Don't look for wild predictions, urgent stock picks, or hot deals. Instead, expect clear, practical ideas on investing and wealth preservation that help investors make responsible financial plans.

    — John Osbon